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Dec. Silver had little to no gain today. I believe it was mostly due to the lack luster move in gold. Gold bounced on the sale of IMF gold to India and the FOMC's dovish statement. However, it has failed to break the 1100 mark. Like I mentioned yesterday, it will be interesting to see if anyone else steps up to buy at the IMF price. Neither silver nor the dollar had any major movement as most traders are waiting for the Non Farm payrolls in the morning and indeed this will direct the market. I look for the next two weeks to be very active in the currency markets. At some point the Fed is going to stop monetizing everything under the sun, it will start with Treasury bills and the agency debt. I am not a contrarian, as I have been buying silver since November of 08. Anyone that has followed my post can remember all the chatter we had back in mid November of 08. I am just very cautious now and will be for the next month, as I think we could see some commodity carnage in the future. Crude oil dropped a bit today unable to hold above the 80 dollar level. Looking at the dollar chart, it seems foolish to think it will not continue to fall.



Long term look at Silver. I feel like we are back to June - July 08 no worries environment, don't you.




Nov 6

8:30 AM Average Workweek Oct
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Oct
8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Oct
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Oct
8:30 AM Average Workweek Oct
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Oct
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep
2:00 PM Consumer Credit Sep

SI

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Silver was flat for the day. It was a wild week with the IMF gold sales news release on Tuesday. It moved silver back up into an area of congestion and tested resistance at 17.65 three time after the bounce. That breakout is important if it fails we will fall back into the 16s. What was interesting to me me on Tuesday was that the dollar and gold/silver all moved up. I would have expected higher gains in the metal with the DXY breakdown and fall back below 76.00. We have taken unemployment above the 10%, the talking heads say it is just a lagging indicator. I have been very surprised by the lack of attention to the bankruptcy of Cit group, it is only the largest corporate bankruptcies in history. Being the primary lender for over 2.000 suppliers that serve over 300,000 retail stores. I suppose it will take time to tickle down. I digress. The dollar has a bit of a triangle going on, to me it looks bullish if the dollar should head up from here. All the odds are against it, with the Fed remaining dovish on key rates and what seems to be more bailout money on it's way for Fanny Mae and more stimulus. The Yen and Euro will make the moves for the dollar in the coming week. Which by the way has no economic data until the 12th, Thursday. Everyone have a great weekend.



SI

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The "Stocks Soar as G20 Says Cheap Money to Continue," weekend headlines destroyed my dollar triangle from Friday. That opened the door for for dollar selling and more stimulus giving strength to PM miners and equities. However, the dollar index support level put a cap on gains made by PM physical and there may have been a little profit taking late in the day. Gold ran up to a new high before pulling back, but still above 1100. At this point it looks like dollar sellers have a green light and that the weaker dollar is the governments goal. The Government and Fed are going to force the Banks and Big cap companies higher, come hell or high water. There is no fighting the spoof or the ticker. I will stand back and watch the currency war that will no doubt take place. I'll run with silver and equities. The gov has put the stamp of approval on both. There is no economic data tomorrow.



SI

Silver shed around 1.5% today as the dollar held on to it's two day consolidation at the support level of 74.94. Silver closed below yesterdays close but bounced on the 17.24 support. Gold closed above yesterdays close at 1105.5 on the Dec contracts. The Treasury 10 year note auction went well. There will be a total of 81 Billion notes auctioned off this week and it seems there are still plenty of buyers of our debt. So as we spend we barrow more. There just seems to be an endless supply of money as long as we have buyers of our debt....Ha! As Ida (hurricane) moves off and becomes downgraded, the price of oil fell, the Gulf goes back to work, taking the edge off commodities a bit. Do not forget to celebrate this week, President Clinton signing of the Gramm (we are all whiners)-Leach-Bliley act that repealed the separation of commercial banks from Investment banks. Thanks to Marketwire for the reminder. The put taxpayers in the position of taking risk. As Charlie Gasparino said, "It's the most anti-capitalist thing I've ever heard of in my life." of the repeal. It now seems the Dems want to take over the Fed. Again I digress.

Tomorrow is a banking holiday and the bond market will be closed. I did not like the weak Doji for the day on the S&P, not a great sign for tomorrow. The bulls may be a bit tired and might take a break before moving through 1100. There is no economic data coming out in the morning.



SI

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Silver gained around 1.5% and gold at 1% today. Silver continues to trade with in a narrow range between 17.24 and 17.75 for the past six days. China's overnight data on industrial output and retails sales gave a early boost to the markets. The Euro jumped up to a two week high at 1.506 before falling back and giving a bit of strength to the dollar and bringing it back above the 74.94 support level. Trading was weak on Veterans Day in the US and Canada. The bond markets were closed. We are consolidating and I think many in the markets are moving with caution. Be that as it may we are still in a strong uptrend and again I am watching the head and shoulders formation, silver would have to fall back to around 16.20 for that to happen, and that is unlikely. I never say never. For the Junior miner folks in the group, there is a new ETF (GDXJ) to cover them. We do have some economic data coming out in the morning, the biggest mover will probably be crude inventories.



November, 12th

8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/07
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/31
11:00 AM Crude Inventories 11/06
2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct

T.

I don't know, Kamron. Their are some big players that we cannot even imagine in this game, and they have been there a long time. I would not count on the silver note returning anytime soon. I do not know of any country that would want to give up control of their fiat currency. But the old gold and silver coined currencies works just fine for you and I. I have faith in their intrinsic value instead of faith in banks and governments.

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Silver is back at 68.1 Fib. support @ 17.24. The Euro has taken a bit of a hit since last night. The British pound fell yesterday and moved sideways today. This this giving the dollar some strength. The dollar may have some short term support. I would watch it closely. The Yen rise will probably offset the pound, so we are back to the Euro. Neither currencies or oil gave support to silver today. The bearish inventory data on oil certainly took steam out of things, so much for the recovery. At least for the moment. Tomorrow Sept. Trade deficit, Oct. Import Prices, and the Nov. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, will give us direction. We added 176 billion to the deficit October, more than economist expected...shock! Just add it to the 1.42 trillion we had as of Sept, 30th..move on folks there is nothing to see here, it's just a little debt, move along now....




November, 13th

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel Nov

SI

What do you mean SI? I don't quite understand, oh wise one.

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After an overnight loss silver bounced off the 10:00am Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data which came in less than expected, and drove the dollar index lower. Silver is still range bound while moving sideways. The dollar looks like it will resume it's trend down after a 2 day push to 75.75, it now sits in a support zone from 75.24-75.15. Both silver and gold gained over 1% today as the dollar moved lower in the afternoon session. Next week we have Retail sales data and it will be important for the direction of equities, silver and gold. It will also determine if the dollar will fall further or form a new short term higher low. The expectation for retail sales is .9% for October. President Obama is in China next week, and investors will be looking for any comment on the yuan. Take that anyway yuan to. Everyone have a great weekend.




November, 16th

08:30 Retail Sales Oct
08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Oct
08:30 Empire Manufacturing Nov
10:00 Business Inventories Sep

SI

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Silver rose to a big 5 plus percent day. Breaking out of the recent trading range we had been in. The Treasury Sec. Geithner and Presidents visit to China only showed that the yuan is not going to budge. After Bernanke's speech today gave no confidence to the dollar. Gold and equity prices continued their climb. It is really hard to say who is going to blink in the currency market next. Both PMs and Equities are at the whim of the dollar and currency markets for the moment. If one looks at the Dow/gold ration over a historical period, it is easy to see that as equities go up, gold falls and the inverse is also true. At the moment both are moving in tandem. It is normal for gold to be inverse to the dollar, but equities following the same pattern is something of a change. This will of course change, it does not take a lot of technical or fundamental knowledge to know that something will give. My guess is that as Fed talks down moving interest rates, it will come in the way of taking QE off the table and at some point companies will drop to meet their true valuation. After all it is the markets job to take as much money as possible from what every it can, whenever it can. It will be interesting to see at what point gold decouples from equities, or how far it will follow the bearish turn. Either way the dollar will be the engine, and other currencies will be the indicators. Recently the dollar has lost value on better than expected economic data, that is a tell on the recovery. The Banks have recovered on investments (I'll just bet that some of that money has been made in the Forex) made with your money, nothing much has changed. As Bernanke said, "I'd still like to know what the stuff is worth." This is not technical or fundamental, so to say it is just one or the other is folly. Tomorrow we have one of the two inflation indicators, it will be interesting to see which way it is creeping. Also, if Industrial production falls back a bit. In the meantime swing traders continue to have a smiles on their faces.




November, 17th

8:30 AM Core PPI Oct
8:30 AM PPI Oct
9:00 AM Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Oct
9:15 AM Industrial Production Oct

SI