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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 1:27 am 
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The economy is nowhere near fixed, until we regain all the lost jobs.

the rest of the indicators mean little if so many continue to loose work.

this is not over. Nowhere near over. It will catch back up to us, unless something happens to regain jobs.

I wish I had free money to buy up some more silver.


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Sun Sep 27, 2009 12:18 am 
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive ... apore.html

Quote:
The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and no destination - and is why your Christmas stocking may be on the light side this year



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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Sun Sep 27, 2009 10:20 am 
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horsewhspers wrote:
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The government is one of the largest consumers of services and commodities. Now to pay for that consumption, they are printing themselves out of debt...The true definition of inflation is the devaluing of currency by increasing the amount of currency in circulation with no basis to back the new currency.


A fine thesis Jeffrey...the problem with it is that you are making the assumption that the providers of products and services are actually spending whatever profit they may have made by selling to the Govt. This is currently not the case. The govt is paying money out, the companies that are receiving the payments are stashing the cash in the back bedroom instead of expanding or buying products and services for themselves, from other providers. What this means is that the money is NOT in circulation and therefore can not contribute to "inflation" nor "hyper-inflation". As a matter of fact this practice may be contributing to deflation.

The real balancing act that the Fed faces is that if and when all those companies run to the back bedroom to get that cash and start spending it, can they [the Fed] gather all the excess cash back in fast enough. If they can't, we will see hyperinflation...right now Companies, Corporations and Individuals seem pretty content in holding on to what they have. I think we are reaching metastability in the economy, one quick move higher or lower will determine the Market landscape like an avalanche, for years to come...



Agreed, and there are other nations that have bought our debt as well. I don't know how you feel, but I don't think they can hold our debt forever. With a projected over spending of more than 9 trillion coming up in the next few years, the fiddler is got to be paid. And, from what I understand, the printing presses are already running filltime pumping out greenbacks.


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:03 am 
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jkline wrote:
Please explain to me how we are going to get hyper/sooperdooper inflation when our debts are denominated in our own currency, wages are not tied to prices, and money, in its proper definition, is being destroyed at a 40:1 leverage.

If you point to M1, M2, M3 you just failed the test.


Did your question get answered? We often go off sometimes and get a little excited. Although I think Horse and I agree, it is just that they can't rathole trillions of dollars for long and when the call is made for the dollars put in the "back bedroom," we as the true bill payers in the USA will have to pay. And, I think most of that will be in infated money. Don't you agree Horse?


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 1:27 pm 
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To people advocating deflation:

M3 has not decreased one iota. None. Zero. Niente. What fell was the rate at which M3 was increasing, but it never went to or below zero. Ergo, monetary inflation has occured. Even if the banks don't put into circulation the money they've received, the foreign creditors will begin to dump dollars. Why? Because even without actual inflation in prices (due to lack of velocity), every dollar the government prints equates to a dollar of new debt. At some point, the government will have to print money continually just to service the debt, and then price inflation will occur. In preemption of that, the creditors will start dumping dollars. They are already doing this to some extent. It will accelerate. When it accelerates enough, and enough of the those dollars make their way home, that will cause price inflation here. Then all the banks and corporations which are cautiously sitting on money will start spending it to avoid loss of purchasing power, which will cause more inflation. Eventually, if the government doesn't balance the budget, the dollar will hyperinflate, unless its replaced first. It's a certainty.


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 3:14 pm 
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I agree with slick. Another solid indicator is the currency market has anyone looked at solarindex's charts lately?

Or more simply the US / currencyX ratios the dollar has not been doing real well aginst other currencies that past few years and many of those currencies have lost purchacing power as well over that timespan, the dollar has just lost more

No paper please, would you like your payment in silver or lead (old mexican bandit proverb :twisted: )


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 5:50 pm 
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Quote:
it is just that they can't rathole trillions of dollars for long and when the call is made for the dollars put in the "back bedroom," we as the true bill payers in the USA will have to pay. And, I think most of that will be in infated money. Don't you agree Horse?


Why can't they "rathole" trillions of dollars? From my perspective, and I am really not close enough to "the action" to say for sure and without a doubt this is what is happening , but it seems to me that the Govt paid off everyone's mortgage. They gave the money to the banks to alleviate the mass foreclosures that had been happening. The banks in turn squirreled most of the money away, when a mortgage payment is missed, the bank goes to the hoard of cash and pays themselves from it. There is no reason that they can't continue this cycle for as long as they choose and there really is no incentive for them to stop. As a matter of fact it could be they are being rewarded for prolonging this process, after 6 or 8 missed payments they can put the mortgage holders out in the street and keep the property too...

The only way the Govt can get "their" money circulating is by raising interest rates. The Govt (being the morons that they are) thought the banks would not "out smart" them but what the banks did is put enough of that "free money" into the stock market to bounce it upward [starting March 2009]. What that means is that if the Govt raises interest rates, the banks will pull that cash back out of the markets to pay off their "loans" and the market tanks again. I would think that normal investors are jittery enough to pull everything out, every last dime and in short order, on a quick move downward...so the Govt is frozen in place...the bank would love to borrow deflated money when the dollar is worth more and pay it back in an inflationary cycle when the dollar is worth less...the Govt is stuck because they already played the "we need more stimulus money" card and got their ass's handed to them, so they are hoping the banks will be happy just collecting as much property as they can....because if they aren't, they could extort God only knows what else...


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 7:34 pm 
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Quote:
The only way the Govt can get "their" money circulating is by raising interest rates. The Govt (being the morons that they are) thought the banks would not "out smart" them but what the banks did is put enough of that "free money" into the stock market to bounce it upward [starting March 2009]. What that means is that if the Govt raises interest rates, the banks will pull that cash back out of the markets to pay off their "loans" and the market tanks again. I would think that normal investors are jittery enough to pull everything out, every last dime and in short order, on a quick move downward...so the Govt is frozen in place...the bank would love to borrow deflated money when the dollar is worth more and pay it back in an inflationary cycle when the dollar is worth less...the Govt is stuck because they already played the "we need more stimulus money" card and got their ass's handed to them, so they are hoping the banks will be happy just collecting as much property as they can....because if they aren't, they could extort God only knows what else...


Well you sure have a good point on this one. Borrow with defalted and pay the debt off with inflated currency and aquire real assets at the same time via foreclosure after you drain the govt money dry . I should have been a banker :)


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:58 pm 
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fleadermouse wrote:

Well you sure have a good point on this one. Borrow with defalted and pay the debt off with inflated currency and aquire real assets at the same time via foreclosure after you drain the govt money dry . I should have been a banker :)



Sounds like Germany all over again, except no Dick Tatter to bail us out?


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:00 am 
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horsewhspers wrote:
Quote:
it is just that they can't rathole trillions of dollars for long and when the call is made for the dollars put in the "back bedroom," we as the true bill payers in the USA will have to pay. And, I think most of that will be in infated money. Don't you agree Horse?


Why can't they "rathole" trillions of dollars? From my perspective, and I am really not close enough to "the action" to say for sure and without a doubt this is what is happening , but it seems to me that the Govt paid off everyone's mortgage. They gave the money to the banks to alleviate the mass foreclosures that had been happening. The banks in turn squirreled most of the money away, when a mortgage payment is missed, the bank goes to the hoard of cash and pays themselves from it. There is no reason that they can't continue this cycle for as long as they choose and there really is no incentive for them to stop. As a matter of fact it could be they are being rewarded for prolonging this process, after 6 or 8 missed payments they can put the mortgage holders out in the street and keep the property too...

The only way the Govt can get "their" money circulating is by raising interest rates. The Govt (being the morons that they are) thought the banks would not "out smart" them but what the banks did is put enough of that "free money" into the stock market to bounce it upward [starting March 2009]. What that means is that if the Govt raises interest rates, the banks will pull that cash back out of the markets to pay off their "loans" and the market tanks again. I would think that normal investors are jittery enough to pull everything out, every last dime and in short order, on a quick move downward...so the Govt is frozen in place...the bank would love to borrow deflated money when the dollar is worth more and pay it back in an inflationary cycle when the dollar is worth less...the Govt is stuck because they already played the "we need more stimulus money" card and got their ass's handed to them, so they are hoping the banks will be happy just collecting as much property as they can....because if they aren't, they could extort God only knows what else...


You just scared the sh*t out of me Horse! I have alot on the line in the market for a poor government employee! We hit hyperinflation too soon, I'm gonna eat beans for a long time. I've been thinking about this for a while, but you are the first to really say it for me. Time to convert all the rest to PM?


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 12:55 pm 
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Yeah, but that kind of story is normally a selling signal for traders.
quick gains seldom hold ,long fought grinds up the wall of worry are the ones that hold, and even then they are subject to dramatic reversals, most pm price moves are sawtooth, watch closely if premiums and spreads change as well, the physical market has trends of its own.
If we start seeing physical shortages and delays again, then the pressure upward is really on.
when 40% brings spot to sellers again, start paying real attention. :D


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:45 pm 
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Woody wrote:
Did you guys see the article in "The Independent" this morning indicating that China, Russia, Japan, etc. are secretly meeting to plan to get away from using the dollar as the denomination for oil?


I don't think the "oil backed dollar" is actually news to anyone

The US War in Iraq ['91] started after Hussein said he would start accepting other currencies in exchange for oil and in 1999 he did

Iran has quietly opened their own currency based "bourse" in 2006. (maybe that is why "nuikes" are an "issue"?)

Venezuela has followed suit with their own agenda

China Russia and Japan following this trend would be surprising only in that they all have a great deal to lose if the value of the dollar plummets...it could be that the have finally realized it will plummet either way and so they are going to try and save themselves...

I am still holding out for a re-entry point, Marc Faber is speculating on a contraction to at least Gold = $920...when a gold bull of his caliber starts seeing the metal hysteria, I tend to move with caution...


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:41 pm 
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Tralfaz wrote:
jeffreybrower20 wrote:
Sorry Woodie,

The US Gov has spent us into a corner. There will be no gold standard for a while. There isn't enough gold on the planet.


Let's try the numbers (this can be fun)

There is about $829 billion dollars of U.S. currency in circulation (according to the federal reserve). Electronic money (bank deposits, stock values, etc) is just someone's promise to give you money and doesn't count in the calculation.

The officially reported gold reserves of the US is 8,133.5 tonnes (261502105 ozt)

dollars/gold = $3170.14/1 ozt Gold.

Wasn't that fun?

The fort knox repository has'nt been audited since the 1950's you really think there is gold still there? now thats a fun fact.


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 Post subject: Re: False Sense of Security
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:46 pm 
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jwwoods32 wrote:
Wouldn't be a bad time to convert a larger portion to PMs. Did you guys see the article in "The Independent" this morning indicating that China, Russia, Japan, etc. are secretly meeting to plan to get away from using the dollar as the denomination for oil? This apparently is the reason for the spike in PM prices. They may be moving towards gold and a basket of currencies. This would be big trouble for the dollar, and would almost certainly put inflationary pressure on the economy.

China is holding way too many dollars to want to disturb their value, they are too smart for that, but they are doing what kruchev vowed to do "we will bury you" and they are doing it economically.


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