forum.bulliondirect.com

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By now everyone has heard about the great IMf sale of gold to India. The $6.7 billion sale of gold set the stage for everything from diversifying out of the dollar, to showing the strong demand for gold. Either way we had a good buying opportunity with the dollar spike. The gold move today was not dollar related as you can see. The dollar moved up overnight then fell back to the 76.33 level on the DXY dollar index. My December dollar charts on the trading station spiked this morning early to plus 81.00 then dropped back down 4 minutes later to 76.85. INO.com had the same anomaly, it may have been a NYBOT glitch. Either that or something very strange happened last night at 9:57-10:01 GMT.

The news of the day was the India trade and Warren Buffett's buying of Burlington Northern. The markets will have to settle down from both, as we knew this was going to be a volatile week. We had a great buying opportunity and now we have gold and silver with some momentum on demand. The dollar is still in a minor uptrend and something to keep an eye on. Equities sat on the sidelines and watched, moving sideways just below yesterday's close. The Buffett and India moves will fade as we get further into the week. Looking at job cuts for tomorrow reminds me that JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)are making huge cuts in their workforce worldwide, which was announced today. ADP and the FOMC statement will be what traders will focus on tomorrow. Silver will have to break above 61.8% with confirmation to move higher.




November, 4th

7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Oct
8:15 AM ADP Employment Report Oct
10:00 AM ISM Services Oct
10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/30
2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision 11/04

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Silver did in fact break above the 68.1% Fib resistance level today. Silver is coming up on some hefty resistance that will have to be broken before a move to 18.00. Gold now has major resistance at 1156.00 and support down around 1070.00. I think we may see some retracement prior to that. The small red circle shows the time the FOMC statement was released today. Up close on the intraday tick by tick, it looked like traders could not make up there minds. I think it was more of a readjustment between the longs and short. The IMF gold sales yesterday to India certainly stirred up the market. However, these sales were scheduled for sometime. It will be interesting to see if Russia or Beijing grabs what is left. I do not think we will see the FOMC raise rates until after they pull back quite a bit on the quantitative easing. Taxpayers continue to lose money on the bailout bets. It is funny, I heard one banker say that assets should now be marked to market, while I laughed, well of course you do, before they go to crap again.

I am still cautions on these moves up, I usually get that way when every one is full of gains. This has become a currency traders market, stocks and commodities are not reflecting reality at the present time. A good example is oil, the price is rising while demand is falling. Since the oil ETFs where let go, everyone can throw some fiat at oil. I do not think it can be stored in the backyard. It is mostly a currency trade. Everyone would say it is a exodus from the dollar in any form. Beware the currency trader.

Since the market is upside down, any good news in fundamentals will be negative for stocks, silver and gold. I think the Federal Reserve has their bet in this area and at some point it will flip and they will be the ones to push the button. I am not surprised at these earnings reports, as they all cut inventories and employees to the point their balance sheets show a gain in the smallest change. With all this exuberance in earnings gains, we should see great fundamentals in the future..right. No, at least not in my mind. I think both reality and the fundamentals are going to catch up with the BS. I will not be buying any PM physical for now. I will wait for the GSR to go back to 60 or lower and make some trades on physical. I still feel that the dollar will retrace to the upside. I will patiently wait for the dollar shorts to cover.

Most are looking for the Euro to go back to 1.50 which would push the dollar lower and it very well could. Which would shake up the Euro zone once again. There is no direction I can give. Everything on the surface looks silver positive. The only thing I would look for is retracements in the price and to watch your support levels and stops closely, and take those with an axe to grind, in any media, with a grain of salt.



November, 5th

8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q3
8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q3
8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/31
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/24

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Dec. Silver had little to no gain today. I believe it was mostly due to the lack luster move in gold. Gold bounced on the sale of IMF gold to India and the FOMC's dovish statement. However, it has failed to break the 1100 mark. Like I mentioned yesterday, it will be interesting to see if anyone else steps up to buy at the IMF price. Neither silver nor the dollar had any major movement as most traders are waiting for the Non Farm payrolls in the morning and indeed this will direct the market. I look for the next two weeks to be very active in the currency markets. At some point the Fed is going to stop monetizing everything under the sun, it will start with Treasury bills and the agency debt. I am not a contrarian, as I have been buying silver since November of 08. Anyone that has followed my post can remember all the chatter we had back in mid November of 08. I am just very cautious now and will be for the next month, as I think we could see some commodity carnage in the future. Crude oil dropped a bit today unable to hold above the 80 dollar level. Looking at the dollar chart, it seems foolish to think it will not continue to fall.



Long term look at Silver. I feel like we are back to June - July 08 no worries environment, don't you.




Nov 6

8:30 AM Average Workweek Oct
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Oct
8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Oct
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Oct
8:30 AM Average Workweek Oct
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Oct
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep
2:00 PM Consumer Credit Sep

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Silver was flat for the day. It was a wild week with the IMF gold sales news release on Tuesday. It moved silver back up into an area of congestion and tested resistance at 17.65 three time after the bounce. That breakout is important if it fails we will fall back into the 16s. What was interesting to me me on Tuesday was that the dollar and gold/silver all moved up. I would have expected higher gains in the metal with the DXY breakdown and fall back below 76.00. We have taken unemployment above the 10%, the talking heads say it is just a lagging indicator. I have been very surprised by the lack of attention to the bankruptcy of Cit group, it is only the largest corporate bankruptcies in history. Being the primary lender for over 2.000 suppliers that serve over 300,000 retail stores. I suppose it will take time to tickle down. I digress. The dollar has a bit of a triangle going on, to me it looks bullish if the dollar should head up from here. All the odds are against it, with the Fed remaining dovish on key rates and what seems to be more bailout money on it's way for Fanny Mae and more stimulus. The Yen and Euro will make the moves for the dollar in the coming week. Which by the way has no economic data until the 12th, Thursday. Everyone have a great weekend.



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The "Stocks Soar as G20 Says Cheap Money to Continue," weekend headlines destroyed my dollar triangle from Friday. That opened the door for for dollar selling and more stimulus giving strength to PM miners and equities. However, the dollar index support level put a cap on gains made by PM physical and there may have been a little profit taking late in the day. Gold ran up to a new high before pulling back, but still above 1100. At this point it looks like dollar sellers have a green light and that the weaker dollar is the governments goal. The Government and Fed are going to force the Banks and Big cap companies higher, come hell or high water. There is no fighting the spoof or the ticker. I will stand back and watch the currency war that will no doubt take place. I'll run with silver and equities. The gov has put the stamp of approval on both. There is no economic data tomorrow.



SI

Silver shed around 1.5% today as the dollar held on to it's two day consolidation at the support level of 74.94. Silver closed below yesterdays close but bounced on the 17.24 support. Gold closed above yesterdays close at 1105.5 on the Dec contracts. The Treasury 10 year note auction went well. There will be a total of 81 Billion notes auctioned off this week and it seems there are still plenty of buyers of our debt. So as we spend we barrow more. There just seems to be an endless supply of money as long as we have buyers of our debt....Ha! As Ida (hurricane) moves off and becomes downgraded, the price of oil fell, the Gulf goes back to work, taking the edge off commodities a bit. Do not forget to celebrate this week, President Clinton signing of the Gramm (we are all whiners)-Leach-Bliley act that repealed the separation of commercial banks from Investment banks. Thanks to Marketwire for the reminder. The put taxpayers in the position of taking risk. As Charlie Gasparino said, "It's the most anti-capitalist thing I've ever heard of in my life." of the repeal. It now seems the Dems want to take over the Fed. Again I digress.

Tomorrow is a banking holiday and the bond market will be closed. I did not like the weak Doji for the day on the S&P, not a great sign for tomorrow. The bulls may be a bit tired and might take a break before moving through 1100. There is no economic data coming out in the morning.



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Silver gained around 1.5% and gold at 1% today. Silver continues to trade with in a narrow range between 17.24 and 17.75 for the past six days. China's overnight data on industrial output and retails sales gave a early boost to the markets. The Euro jumped up to a two week high at 1.506 before falling back and giving a bit of strength to the dollar and bringing it back above the 74.94 support level. Trading was weak on Veterans Day in the US and Canada. The bond markets were closed. We are consolidating and I think many in the markets are moving with caution. Be that as it may we are still in a strong uptrend and again I am watching the head and shoulders formation, silver would have to fall back to around 16.20 for that to happen, and that is unlikely. I never say never. For the Junior miner folks in the group, there is a new ETF (GDXJ) to cover them. We do have some economic data coming out in the morning, the biggest mover will probably be crude inventories.



November, 12th

8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/07
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/31
11:00 AM Crude Inventories 11/06
2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct

T.

I don't know, Kamron. Their are some big players that we cannot even imagine in this game, and they have been there a long time. I would not count on the silver note returning anytime soon. I do not know of any country that would want to give up control of their fiat currency. But the old gold and silver coined currencies works just fine for you and I. I have faith in their intrinsic value instead of faith in banks and governments.

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Silver is back at 68.1 Fib. support @ 17.24. The Euro has taken a bit of a hit since last night. The British pound fell yesterday and moved sideways today. This this giving the dollar some strength. The dollar may have some short term support. I would watch it closely. The Yen rise will probably offset the pound, so we are back to the Euro. Neither currencies or oil gave support to silver today. The bearish inventory data on oil certainly took steam out of things, so much for the recovery. At least for the moment. Tomorrow Sept. Trade deficit, Oct. Import Prices, and the Nov. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, will give us direction. We added 176 billion to the deficit October, more than economist expected...shock! Just add it to the 1.42 trillion we had as of Sept, 30th..move on folks there is nothing to see here, it's just a little debt, move along now....




November, 13th

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel Nov

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What do you mean SI? I don't quite understand, oh wise one.

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After an overnight loss silver bounced off the 10:00am Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data which came in less than expected, and drove the dollar index lower. Silver is still range bound while moving sideways. The dollar looks like it will resume it's trend down after a 2 day push to 75.75, it now sits in a support zone from 75.24-75.15. Both silver and gold gained over 1% today as the dollar moved lower in the afternoon session. Next week we have Retail sales data and it will be important for the direction of equities, silver and gold. It will also determine if the dollar will fall further or form a new short term higher low. The expectation for retail sales is .9% for October. President Obama is in China next week, and investors will be looking for any comment on the yuan. Take that anyway yuan to. Everyone have a great weekend.




November, 16th

08:30 Retail Sales Oct
08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Oct
08:30 Empire Manufacturing Nov
10:00 Business Inventories Sep

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Silver rose to a big 5 plus percent day. Breaking out of the recent trading range we had been in. The Treasury Sec. Geithner and Presidents visit to China only showed that the yuan is not going to budge. After Bernanke's speech today gave no confidence to the dollar. Gold and equity prices continued their climb. It is really hard to say who is going to blink in the currency market next. Both PMs and Equities are at the whim of the dollar and currency markets for the moment. If one looks at the Dow/gold ration over a historical period, it is easy to see that as equities go up, gold falls and the inverse is also true. At the moment both are moving in tandem. It is normal for gold to be inverse to the dollar, but equities following the same pattern is something of a change. This will of course change, it does not take a lot of technical or fundamental knowledge to know that something will give. My guess is that as Fed talks down moving interest rates, it will come in the way of taking QE off the table and at some point companies will drop to meet their true valuation. After all it is the markets job to take as much money as possible from what every it can, whenever it can. It will be interesting to see at what point gold decouples from equities, or how far it will follow the bearish turn. Either way the dollar will be the engine, and other currencies will be the indicators. Recently the dollar has lost value on better than expected economic data, that is a tell on the recovery. The Banks have recovered on investments (I'll just bet that some of that money has been made in the Forex) made with your money, nothing much has changed. As Bernanke said, "I'd still like to know what the stuff is worth." This is not technical or fundamental, so to say it is just one or the other is folly. Tomorrow we have one of the two inflation indicators, it will be interesting to see which way it is creeping. Also, if Industrial production falls back a bit. In the meantime swing traders continue to have a smiles on their faces.




November, 17th

8:30 AM Core PPI Oct
8:30 AM PPI Oct
9:00 AM Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Oct
9:15 AM Industrial Production Oct

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Silver closed below yesterdays close at 18.53 on the Dec contracts. Gold moved up on yesterdays close to 1169.4. It was a heavy day of data and for the most part things moved more sideways than up. The data seemed to offset the previous release all morning. Even the FOMC statement gave no surprises other than they were going to keep everything the way it is. This puts the dollar back in a weak position and speculative risk trades on the table to continue. The Fed said they were keeping an eye on the falling value of the US dollar, it's a bit late for that news as the low rates are leading to a weaker dollar and will cause inflation as import prices to go up. All the while we spend more. Unemployment numbers are going to be key as "unemployment data is a lagging indicator" only goes so far when it continues to go up. Rather than make moves that will help, it is likely they will just throw more devalued money at the problem. They refuse to face any sort of reform or regulation of the problem that put us here and may very well occur again.

I am glad it is short week as all this makes my scalp heat up from the inside. They obviously know that the dollar cannot be allowed to fall much further. What they have in mind will probably not be known until we are well into the first quarter of next year. This should pretty much secure gains in commodities with breaks for profit taking and book balancing. It will be interesting to see if the ECB goes through with their plan to stop easing and rein in the banks. There is a bunch of economic data due out tomorrow and estimates are very mixed. It should make for an interesting day as traders begin to leave for the holiday. I will be leaving early tomorrow for Thanksgiving. I wish all a very Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families.



November, 25th

8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
8:30 AM PCE Prices Oct
8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core
8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/21
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/14
8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
8:30 AM Durable Orders ex Transportation Oct
9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev Nov
10:00 AM New Home Sales Oct
10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/20

Natty gas inventories will come out at 12:00 for those looking at UNG or nat gas companies.

SI

p.s. I was given a shot last Tuesday and it put me in bed for the following 2 and a half days. All is well again.

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Both silver and gold are making a nice recovery from last weeks doubts of Dubai, that seem to be settled with the UAE central bank covering their bets. Both the dollar and silver moved up today. The currency markets are very touchy. Every little bit of retail news is snapped up, a nibble of what is to come. Even the capture of a British racing yacht by Iran forced the price of oil up from 76 to 78 dollars a barrel. Contracts have moved as options expired. The majority of Silver contracts are now in March and Gold contracts are in February. Everyone will be looking for Friday's non farm payrolls. There is a lot of economic data in between. I do not look for fundamentals to shore up in the month of December. Watching what the Senate does with the Banking reform bill. It seems to include provisions for thrifts and banks which will help the large banks become even bigger without the thrift annoyance. The provision has be thrown out, however the Treasury wants it back in. Everyone in Washington wants a strong dollar and banks that are not so big and consolidated....HA! They continue to talk out of both sides of their faces. At this point I am not sure that anyone really has an idea of what is going to happen next. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.



Although the dollar weakened last Friday it moved back up today. The dollar will have to drop below 74.46 to break the upside swing. I have my physical and will not chase the price from here. I will wait for a pull back. If 18.34 support fails then I am looking for silver to pull bank into the low 17s with a major support level at 17.87. I cannot make a technical call on silver or gold without looking at the fundamentals and geopolitical tensions which may pop up very soon. I am certainly comfortable with my physical holdings at present. Between Credit and Crises we will weave this mess.


March silver and the DXY

December 1st

10:00 AM Construction Spending Oct
10:00 AM ISM Index Nov
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Oct
2:00 PM Auto Sales Nov
2:00 PM Truck Sales Nov

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Silver moved sideways for the day as gold moved up overnight and spent the rest of the day testing the 1217.50 resistance level on the Feb. contracts. I have the next resistance point at 1226.10. The dollar put a cap on things as it moved up on the Euro pull back. Tomorrow the ECB will make it's rate decision, it is not expected to change. Everyone will be waiting to hear what Jean-Claude Trichet has to say at 08:30 eastern. The pattern of government easing and weak monetary policy continues. This will keep funds and speculators in the gold and silver rally. The British pound was supported by better economic news and a renewed expansion, according to Spencer Dale of the Bank of England. It is very comfortable sitting back and watching the intrinsic value of your precious metals grow, and even better knowing that there is nothing they can do to lessen it's value. My concerns are more focused on supply and price of things we need to survive. This gives me much concern, the move back up is slow, but prices bottomed in July and have begun to rise since then. Tomorrow Initial and Continuing claims are mixed as is the ISM data.



December, 3rd

8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/28
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/21
8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q3
8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q3
10:00 AM ISM Services Nov

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Both silver and gold lost ground today as the dollar strengthened. The ECB kept the key rate unchanged and Trichet talked up support for the dollar. The Euro-zone has been concerned about the gains in the Euro. This is nothing new as the weak dollar has hurt their export. The carry trade is in high gear, this will not last. It is something that I would bet heavily on. A lot of people have made tons of money on the dollar carry trade, it is to me the primary reason we see gold at new highs. There are huge short positions on the dollar by speculators. Gold has been in a parabolic move, we have all seen parabolic moves in the past and most likely the downside dip on the other side. Silver has a 3 year resistance point at 19.55, above that we move up to closer the the 21.44 high. Picking the top is something I have not found many if any good at. Tomorrow will be an important day with Non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures, it certainly will give us direction.



December, 4th

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Nov
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Nov
8:30 AM Average Workweek Nov
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Nov
10:00 AM Factory Orders Oct

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