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Silver gained 1.3% today above yesterdays close and on higher volume. Silver looks good up to 18.44 but there is firmer resistance at 18.89. Support is 17.82. If those break we will take another look. The slight roll to the upside in the 50ma is a positive sign. The increase in your gold and silver makes for a big smile moment. Gold and silver have been looked at as a currency against global problems. Oil fell back a bit on gains in inventories.

Gold continued to climb for the fifth straight session. Demand and a safe haven play is very much in with the Europeans. They are buying into gold as their currency falls, along with dept and currency problem. The data for EU showed GDP as being flat. As they are not sure about the safety of the dollar they are buying into gold. The gold showed a positive correlation with the dollar as gold was insulated by Euro demand for PMs. Many see the equities rolling over soon.

Bernanke stated today that the US is still fighting steep unemployment and a troubled housing market. Consumer debt fell by $11.5 in February, good for consumers not so good for the credit business. The US Treasury's 10 year note auction went very well today. The market was coming off the days lows when the Fed's Hoenig made a statement that he wants to see the key rate up to 1%. He has been the dissenting vote within the Fed's decision to keeping key rates low. As he made that statement the market turned down. I put the Euro chart up today just to show it's situation. This is also the primary reason the dollar has gained strength. A fall in initial claims and continuing claims would be a plus for the markets on the open, major miners did very well today.



April, 08

08:30 Initial Claims 04/03
08:30 Continuing Claims 03/27
10:00 Wholesale Inventories Feb

SI

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Silver lost about 0.38% today and below yesterday's close. The metal fell in the overnight only to reverse 30 minutes after the market opened. It was just not able to get back to flat or above. Gold held up a bit better. The claims were mixed, the initial claims were up 18,000 and the continuing claims fell by 373,000 from 11.1 million. Both Treasures and the dollar jumped a bit on the news. The 30 year bond auction went well. Investors and foreign central banks bought 36.8% up from 34.7%.

Retails sales have been smoking with some reaching their 52 week high and others are getting very close. Many think that equities may roll soon, however if the DOW punches through the psychological level of 11,000.00. There may be buyers coming back into the market. However, at these levels it is going to take some good fundamentals to hold the market up. If we fall back into deflation, it would be a game changer. I missed much of the morning session, had to do a little catch up. Wholesale inventories is the only US economic data do out in the morning.



SI

From Trader Dan Norcini at jsmineset.com:
"For you silver guys out there (I love reading your emails whenever I mention silver so keep them coming!) a factor that is of importance, silver just took out its all time high in Euro terms today at its morning fix in London. The same thing holds for the metal as holds for gold, a market making all time highs when priced in other currencies besides the Dollar, is very difficult to push down for any extended period of time simply because the successive highs makes for bullish investor psychology. Silver is functioning as a monetary metal right now because it is outperforming copper so its strength is not merely a reflection of improving industrial demand as some suggest."


I am hoping that silver is finally getting legs again. I've been in a holding pattern for over a year now personally waiting for this. Last year as gold reached all time highs again, silver seemed to really lag. Right now it seems to be outperforming gold and hopefully this trend will continue through the year. Go baby go!

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Silver gained 1.7% today and above yesterday's close. Silver's price movement was good as you can see from the open and close notches. It hit the 78.6 Fib resistance level and may pull back a bit before continuing. Near term support would be around 17.82. Who knows what the weekend will hold in headline surprises. Disregard the red line, it was left over from my 5 minute look at silver earlier in the day.

There was some currency action as the Greek Finance Minister came out and stated Greece was not asking for a rescue. Not long after that Finch came in and downgraded Greece to a BBB- rating. However the Euro gained to the point is has hit the top of the channel on our previous Euro chart, which pushed the dollar lower. That whole scene is schizophrenic. We are still seeing inflow into gold because of it, gold popped up after the Greece downgrade by Finch. Gold also hit a 4 month high. US equities jumped on better than expected wholesale inventories. Then to top the currency markets off, Trichet came out and stated that Greece is not at the point where it needs a financial bailout and is in no danger of defaulting. Do not give me what he is drinking. Retail earnings have looked very good, giving the consumer some creditability. Next week we will get into the 1st week of heavy earnings reports. Enjoy your weekend.



SI.

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Silver lost 1% today and closed below yesterday's close. Silver has been falling in the over night received a pop on the open. The Euro jumped above the channel it had been in for months as European leaders finally gave details on the rescue package for Greece's debt woes. Euro zone leaders agreed to provide 40 billion in country to country loans. This may take the pressure off the euro for at least April and May. The Dollar weakened on the news. This was a bit unsettling as buyers did not come back into the PM market on the weaker dollar, something we will have to watch in both silver and gold. Earnings season will cause some volatility. So what would seem to be a prime for stronger PM prices instead gave us a pull back in price on slightly lower volume.

China showed a much wider trade deficit as imports outpaced exports for the first time in six years. The are struggling between inflation and a growing domestic market. We mentioned this inflation problem in previous posts. Oil did a reversal as an increase in stockpiles this week are expected to build, this could be a head-fake, we will have to keep an ear toward more economic slowing. We will see if it falls below 83.51. Alcoa was the first big earnings report for this quarter, the report came out after the close. The report showed a gain of .10 cents a share earnings but expectations were .11, but revenues where up. I do not think this will be a big market mover in the morning. I will be watching for the euro retest the top line of the channel or if the dollar continues to weaken. The dollar has support 61.8% @ 80.47 and a psychological at 80.00. It is presently at 80.67.



April, 13th

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar
08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar
08:30 Trade Balance Feb

T.

That's how you grow ej. I, for one would love to hear what you have to say. Haven't been very active in the forum lately, but I have tried to keep up on the reading. Been traveling a lot. I have been to quite a bit of training this year to make up for some lost time over the last few years. Fire season will start in a couple months and it will get even worse in the traveling department. I don't have enough time to research, so, it would be great if you took on SI's invitation. I bet there are lots of others out there that would follow a regular article like that.

SI, I apologize for hijacking your thread with a somewhat personal post, but you did open the door by passing the buck regarding the PIGS update. I knew it! I knew it was your job that kept you away. Good to see “jlb123” in the “Last Post” column. I must say; it’s great that you try to keep up with the reading, but… we can’t see you reading, we only see your keystrokes. I will ask; if you’re able to get a read in can you also type a word or two? Just to let us know you’re around. I really miss the reads from you and Woods; you’re both like peanut butter and jelly, sticky topics with a sweet disposition. Also, you, Woods and Kev are like a BLT. It all goes great together. Those reads gave me, and I bet others in the forum “deep” food for thought. It’s been quite a while since I’ve seen any heated discussions from the duo/trio. But do hope and look forward to it happening again!

From the beginning, you, as well as others inspired me in regards to learning the PM market [still a novice] and now you’re inspiring me again! Uh oh… catch… I’m throwing you a cold pack for that swelled head of yours. You know what you suggest is taking me out of my comfort zone but you’re right, it’s the only way to grow. If I take on this endeavor, I would like to team up with Woods for he has a wonderful way with words. Woods how about it? Don’t mean to put you on the spot, so there’s no need to answer. But I do hope you do. [no offense to any of my buddies on the board, all is welcomed]

I must admit, I thought I was writing too much. I’m kind of embarrassed b/c some threads and some of my comments were downright silly/stupid. I feel I should keep a low profile and let those who were staying away come forth.

PS- Be careful when tackling those forest fires you renaissance man! Make sure you tell us about your adventures, for if you don’t I’ll be thinking the worst. Also, don’t forget to type a word or two to let us know you’re here when your catching up with the reads! Deal?

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Silver closed flat and below yesterday close. Volume was high but the open/close price movement just was not there. It looks like there was some Euro zone profit taking in PMs on the back of the euro breaking out of our channel. Seemingly strong enough to offset the falling dollar as the euro gains with a what seems to be a positive tilt to the rescue package for Greece's debt. Both gold and silver are still trending up and are poised for further gains. There are a few things to keep and eye on, China's yuan, the Fed raising the discount rate, and dollar strength. I have to cut this short as I have an appointment. You can see that the dollar has been falling the last few days and needs to break below the 61.8% Fib. Tomorrow we have some fundamental data coming out. Data on inflation, retail sales and the FOMC minutes is what I will be watching. Intel earnings came in much better than expected, I would expect the futures to be up on the open.



April, 14th

08:30 CPI Mar
08:30 Core CPI Mar
08:30 Retail Sales Mar
08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Mar
10:00 Business Inventories Feb
10:30 Crude Inventories 04/10
14:00 Fed's Beige Book Apr

SI

My head is twice the size it was before I came on! We have lots of good friends here in this forum. I'm glad I joined it. Woodie is good, hopefully he will join you in the new thread.

And, keep the good info coming in SI, your the greatest. This thread is always a stop and read for me...

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Silver closed up 1% and above yesterdays close and finished at the highest level since January. Palladium and other metals gained as well. Silver is up testing the 78.6 Fib level once again. Volume was lower than yesterday but the price movement was much better. Once silver confirms the move above 18.44, and baring any surprises (like Greece) we should move higher. There was something in the news about Greece at the close. I have not had time to read it. The dollar continues to fall which has dropped below a prime support level. The dollar was given a little boost to the down side on statements made this morning by Bernanke. He restated his forecast for a moderate recovery and gave an indication he had no desire to change the central banks statement that key interest rates would not rise in the near future. The good earnings reports from Intel and JPM put the market on a rip along with his remarks. I looks to me like the inverse correlation between stocks and the dollar has returned and replacing fundamentals with risk positioning. It is certainly a good opportunity to make some gains on the miners and SLV and GLD to build a bank for the next dip. We will have a lot of economic data to thumb though tomorrow.



April, 15th

08:30 Continuing Claims 04/03
08:30 Initial Claims 04/10
08:30 Empire Manufacturing Index Apr
09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jan
09:15 Capacity Utilization Mar
09:15 Industrial Production Mar
10:00 Philadelphia Fed Apr

SI

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Silver closed flat down only 0.05% and about level with yesterdays close. There was also lower volume along with the lack of price change. It is still trying to test resistance as the dollar continues to test support. Silver fell a bit as the dollar found some strength this morning on the industrial output number which came out at 7.8%. Also there were some questions once again about Greece's finances. The dollar waned after it's high of the day but still end up higher than yesterday's close. For the most part it was a boring day in equities, however, we did close up for the sixth straight day. That is about it, silver will hopefully break above resistance and the dollar must fall below support. Keep a close eye on both the euro and the dollar. Most are looking at earnings reports more than fundamentals. I would not be surprised if we see a dip tomorrow as some profit taking may occur, although, the Michigan consumer sentiment may give us a boost in the morning.



April, 16th

08:30 Building Permits Mar
08:30 Housing Starts Mar
09:55 Mich Sentiment Apr

SI

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Silver closed down 3.75% @ 17.73 and below yesterday's close. Silver was falling in the over night as the dollar was beginning to gain some strength. Then around 10:45am the SEC drop a Goldman Sachs bomb that was an immediate hit to the entire market. It is a complicated fraud charge that the SEC has brought against Goldman Sachs based on the lack of disclosure. The broad sell off included PMs. Goldman Sachs is one of the biggest brokers in commodities. There was probably some profit taking as well and liquidation of gold an silver ETF holdings to cover losses in other areas. Palladium and platinum also closed lower. Silver held at the 17.63 support level at 61.8% Fibonacci. The dollar continued to gain after the SEC statement. This all took place as the banking reform issue is front and center. As far as I am concerned I hope it sends a message to congress, that this has taken much to long to have some rules and regulation in the derivatives and the idiotic risk positions taken by FDIC insured institutions. The shady areas of banking such as derivatives and the fraud that took place with the structuring of collateralized debt obligations involving sub-prime mortgages need to be exposed. We will have to see if this spreads to other firms. Also, if the contagion carries over into Asia and Europe on Sunday's open. If so I look for a lower opening on Monday and a possible correction.



Today there was still confusion as to how a bailout would work for Greece. The European finance ministers meeting in Madrid stated that Greece was seeking to clarify how the bail out would work, rather than requesting it. The confusion pushed the euro lower. This is going to be with us for awhile as is Spain and Portugal.



The only economic data is Leading Indicators at 10:00, and there will probably be little movement there. Everyone have a good weekend!!

SI

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Silver closed flat at around .11% and above yesterday's close. Silver continued to fall yesterday after the Goldman Sachs news came out of Friday. Gold fared a bit better but still closed below Sunday's close. Most of the panic has waned since Friday, we're talking Goldman Sachs after all. The story may not be over but this chapter seems to be closed for now. They will give their earnings in the morning. Both Goldman and Paulson (not Hank Paulson, this one is a hedge fund CEO) have very large positions in Gold. Silver is still at the 61.8% Fib support level. Based on what we may see in earnings tomorrow, we could see a nice bump up in PMs from that support level. The dollar was down a bit on lower volume. It did fail at punching through the 76.8% Fib resistance level. The Euro ministers were unable to meet today due to the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajokull eruption. This is having and affect on oil and will also show up in the transport sector. Tomorrow the only economic data will be Oil inventories. Watch for Goldman Sachs and Apple earnings tomorrow, they well move the market and PMs.



SI

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Silver closed up +1% at 18.25% and above yesterdays close. Price movement was up on about the same volume as yesterday. The 50ma is about to cross the 100ma, this is called the 'golden cross' and is usually a positive sign. Silver is well above support and the next resistance level is at 18.44. The real story behind both silver and gold today was the euro. The Prime Minister of Greece finally gave in and ask to tap into the 59 billion dollar rescue package. This pushed the euro up, the dollar down, gold/silver and equities up, for a good day of gains. The euro zone had some good economic data come out today as well. The US fundamental data also came out positive, both durable goods ex transportation and new home sales were up, especially new home sales. That made for both existing home sales and new home sales with positive gains. Durable goods alone did not show a good number when aircraft sales were included. The real pusher for todays gains was the energy sector. Little attention was paid in the financial news that OPEC announced it would be cutting production as the Asian refiners shut plants to carry out work. It was one of those positive days to trade the short term, however, we have a week ahead that may apply some pressure. Also the Greece story is not closed, a page has only turned. Everyone have a good weekend. There is no US economic data on Monday. Tuesday will start out with an important data point, consumer confidence.



SI

Long time no see Solar, I hope everything is okay..... Miss the updates and insight