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I was reading on Bloomberg that they shut the doors on First Centennial of Ca.- third bank this year to be closed. It also said that there were $12.8M in funds that exceeded the insurance limit. While I know, for some, it's hard to feel too much sympathy for people who have enough savings to exceed the FDIC insurance limit, but that has got to suck for those folks! Apparently, 25 banks failed last year (more should have). I wonder how the Treasury makes the determination as to who is "too big to fail". I think it will be around 30. I have no facts to back this up - just a swag. Would be interested to hear what you think.
It also reported that FDIC has under $35 billion left in the fund - that doesn't seem like that much! But then again, what difference does that make? They'll just print more money and send the FDIC a big care package if they run out

you should have included an "all of them" option...although I don't think all of them will fail this year.... 2010 might see it...

Perhaps, "fail or receive backing from the government to stay solvent" That number is probably HUGE in 09.

Reuters reports – (see here) -- that one in eight U.S. banks, most with over $2 billion in assets, may fail in the next three to five years, duet to record mortgage delinquencies and soaring home equity loan defaults. According to a report by RBC Capital Markets, “Credit losses in the U.S. banking industry will run into the hundreds of billions of dollars over this cycle.” The FDIC has shut nine banks in 2009, and as of September reported 171 “problem” lenders.Via Stock Research Portal Blog

so far we hit 100...why was > 40 chosen as an option instead of 100?

No reason - I guess I just didn't imagine that it would go much higher than that.

A little less than 1/3rd who voted, didn't think it would be as high as 40...and if weren't for the "mergers" and "brokered deals" by The Fed we would probably be over 200...now we have Welfare Banks...