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 Post subject: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sat Nov 28, 2009 12:07 am 
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Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2008 4:49 am
Posts: 51
Location: Reidville, SC
Have about 650 ounces in the form of silver eagles. I have mixed feelings should I sell them to make profit or should I save them for collapsing economy?

To me I could make a profit if I sold since most were purchased around $13-$14 each but then I would receive dollars which if it were not for Dubai were heading in the sewer.

Then on the other hand because of Dubai we watched gold and silver value drop. This tells me holding for the collapsing economy may not be wise as they will lose value.

I know some of you have been doing this for a while, which strategy are you following. I'm secure financially so I don't have to sell them. I just don't know what is the wisest thing to do. I'm a case of an old fart who used to put money in CDs until they become a waste of time. Thanks to all.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sat Nov 28, 2009 1:15 am 
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Joined: Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:51 am
Posts: 140
Fwiw,

I'm dumping all my silver, but hanging onto gold for now. The bond market over the last two weeks has been in panic mode indicating deflation, especially when the dollar carry-trade unwinds. Margin calls trumps all: wouldn't be surprised if silver gets knocked below ten. Gold will get hammered too, but I sleep better with a geo-political hedge.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sat Nov 28, 2009 10:54 am 
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Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:53 pm
Posts: 1355
You might consider selling the SAE's, buying generic silver rounds/bars; then when the mint starts pumping 'em out by the millions next year, sell the generic and buy 'em back at reduced premiums.

Beyond that, I think we are going to tweak a bit over 19, then pull back into the 14's before July 2010. If you think that is likely as well, you can sell now, and pick back replacement silver at various pull back points, perhaps some at 17, some at 16, some at 15... that way if you don't get the 'full drop' you are hoping for, you at least end up with some check points with additional silver in your pocket.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sat Nov 28, 2009 10:08 pm 
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Joined: Sat May 16, 2009 3:40 pm
Posts: 191
Location: West
own some PMs to protect and store wealth, Unless you feel you know something others dont
or enjoy the ride , make acquring and holding some of your assets in tangible items a priority.
In todays turbulent times your small perceived fiat profit doesent justify selling something that just went scarce unless you are sure as you can be you can re acquire them later for less wealth. after tax of course.
consider standing pat if you arent in the mood for more.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sat Nov 28, 2009 10:39 pm 
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Location: Reidville, SC
Funtrader2 wrote:
own some PMs to protect and store wealth, Unless you feel you know something others dont
or enjoy the ride , make acquring and holding some of your assets in tangible items a priority.
In todays turbulent times your small perceived fiat profit doesent justify selling something that just went scarce unless you are sure as you can be you can re acquire them later for less wealth. after tax of course.
consider standing pat if you arent in the mood for more.


That's partially what I was thinking. I wouldn't get out of it for good. My thoughts if I sold high would be to use every dollar I received in purchasing more when the price went down again. Kind of a constant circulation of product. I wouldn't hold dollars long but wasn't sure whether I should hold silver long.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 9:59 am 
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Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2005 3:45 pm
Posts: 746
Location: Deep in the Heart o' Texas
My plans are to eventually sell my silver and buy gold. The strategy is based on the notion that eventually silver will appreciate on a percentage basis more than gold will. Therefore, I end up with more value in gold than if I had put everything into gold to begin with.

My reason to end up all in gold is because of volume and portability. I will retain some smaller amount of US 90% coins for trading if it comes to that. Lets hope not.

Yes, the metals got hit Friday like everything else, but I suspect this is due to programs trading, and not people trading. It was automatic. In the real deal, people will replace the programs and grasp for any straw floating.

The question folks in this business need to ask themselves is: Am I in the gambling business or am I in the insurance business?


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 1:50 pm 
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Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 21
I have contemplated the same thing. I have dumped 3500 oz. of silver in the past few weeks because I feel there will be a pullback. I got in at $9 though so I can't feel bad about taking a decent profit. I still hold some but may sell another 500oz. if the price goes over $19 again.
I am selling for the same purpose HiLo mentions, I will wait for a decent dip (which may or may not come) in gold prices and switch my main holdings to gold (mainly for portability). I really like silver and in my little brain something is wrong with silver. Its supposedly rare, cheaper so more people can buy it and adjusted for inflation should have a loooong way to go but somehow..it does not.

Adjusted for the highs in the 80's metals would have to go up the following to equal the highs:
Gold 93%
Platinum 91%
Palladium 93%
Silver 600%

Though I know metals are a hedge against inflation and with Uncle Obama printing like mad we are bound for major inflation. I also think there will be another huge market crash and last time metals went down with the stock market. Seems backwards to me but thats how it went. Its hard to go by principles these days, you just have to pick a way and roll the dice.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:40 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2005 3:45 pm
Posts: 746
Location: Deep in the Heart o' Texas
jwwoods32 wrote:
HiLoSilver wrote:
Yes, the metals got hit Friday like everything else, but I suspect this is due to programs trading, and not people trading. It was automatic. In the real deal, people will replace the programs and grasp for any straw floating.


On the topic of metals taking a hit last week, I agree with what you said, but do you also think it might have been the result of selling PMs in an an attempt to at least partially reconcile the debt? I have no information to support this - just wondering.


I don't know, I have not thought about it in this way, nor do I have any data either. I am aware that the gold price came back very well after the initial reaction was over. The spot gold price was down $47, but ended the shortened day down only $9. And $9 isn't even noise at $1200 per ounce. Kinda makes me wonder what I was worried about, and that I am probably just spoiled by the recent price increases.

Heck, nothing moves in a straight line, I haven't sold anything that I bought in the last four years, and I'm not going to sell anything any time soon unless/until silver has outperformed gold as per my investment strategy. I'll save the trading for the PM mutual funds - its a lot faster and has fewer tax consequences in the IRA. And every time some new financial emergency and disaster rears its ugly head, I get to just go on with my day and not be nearly as upset about it all.

My net worth today is much greater than it was four years ago due to my PM activities. Other folks' investments have either been reduced 40% or even disappeared because they were in the securities markets. So buy and hold in the PMs is working for me.
-HLS


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:35 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 1:51 pm
Posts: 422
Location: CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE
Only sell if you plan to use the fiat paper money to either pay off debts or buy something tangible. I would never trade silver for paper just because it is "profitable". Sincerely, John Leckrone


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:10 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2008 4:49 am
Posts: 51
Location: Reidville, SC
Pretty close. Was going to sell the silver, sit on the money, then when silver went down the next time buy more silver and wait for it to go up and do it all over again hoping to build more silver off profits


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:16 pm 
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Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2006 8:00 pm
Posts: 817
Location: Colorful Colorado
rid0617 wrote:
Pretty close. Was going to sell the silver, sit on the money, then when silver went down the next time buy more silver and wait for it to go up and do it all over again hoping to build more silver off profits

There is some risk in that approach, but it can work if you're smart. KEEP YOUR CORE POSITION! Sorry to yell, but it's imperative that you know the difference between the silver you're holding in case TSHTF or based on fundimentals vs your trading silver.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:59 pm 
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Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 54
jkline wrote:
Fwiw,

The bond market over the last two weeks has been in panic mode indicating deflation, especially when the dollar carry-trade unwinds.


In the short term maybe, but there is no way that inflation wont hit hard in the very near future. There is too much new paper money floating around.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:21 am 
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Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:07 am
Posts: 805
HiLoSilver wrote:
jwwoods32 wrote:
HiLoSilver wrote:
Yes, the metals got hit Friday like everything else, but I suspect this is due to programs trading, and not people trading. It was automatic. In the real deal, people will replace the programs and grasp for any straw floating.


On the topic of metals taking a hit last week, I agree with what you said, but do you also think it might have been the result of selling PMs in an an attempt to at least partially reconcile the debt? I have no information to support this - just wondering.


I don't know, I have not thought about it in this way, nor do I have any data either. I am aware that the gold price came back very well after the initial reaction was over. The spot gold price was down $47, but ended the shortened day down only $9. And $9 isn't even noise at $1200 per ounce. Kinda makes me wonder what I was worried about, and that I am probably just spoiled by the recent price increases.

Heck, nothing moves in a straight line, I haven't sold anything that I bought in the last four years, and I'm not going to sell anything any time soon unless/until silver has outperformed gold as per my investment strategy. I'll save the trading for the PM mutual funds - its a lot faster and has fewer tax consequences in the IRA. And every time some new financial emergency and disaster rears its ugly head, I get to just go on with my day and not be nearly as upset about it all.

My net worth today is much greater than it was four years ago due to my PM activities. Other folks' investments have either been reduced 40% or even disappeared because they were in the securities markets. So buy and hold in the PMs is working for me.
-HLS


Which funds do you use? I have lately been using the Permanent Portfolio Fund. It buys actual Gold and Silver Eagles, and Gold Maples, plus T bills etc.
Performance has been very good and it is a very conservative group. I have the miners too, but they drop faster than the underlying metal when
gold goes down.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Mon Nov 30, 2009 3:02 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2005 3:45 pm
Posts: 746
Location: Deep in the Heart o' Texas
hbob wrote:
Which funds do you use? I have lately been using the Permanent Portfolio Fund. It buys actual Gold and Silver Eagles, and Gold Maples, plus T bills etc.
Performance has been very good and it is a very conservative group. I have the miners too, but they drop faster than the underlying metal when
gold goes down.


I am using FSAGX, though not for any scientific reasons. Your fund is PRPFX (I think). To see which of any funds is doing better than the other, go to any web stock chart page and do a relative strength comparison or percent comparison. My favorite would be to enter FSAGX:PRPFX in the Symbol box. Go here:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[w,a]waolynay[df][pc10!c40!f][iut!La12,26,9!Lb14]&pref=G

The sloping UP curve shows strength of the first fund to the second fund. The sloping DOWN curve shows weakness to the second fund. Put anything in the symbol box that it will accept. $GOLD, $SILVER, $GOLD:$SILVER

Have fun!
-HLS

PS Copy and Paste the full link into the URL box in your browser. I don't know why only half of it is active.


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 Post subject: Re: Need opinions
PostPosted: Mon Nov 30, 2009 3:49 pm 
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Joined: Sat Nov 28, 2009 2:32 am
Posts: 25
Hi guys

Not a big player in PM's but i don't trust this government or any goverment as far as i can spit. The way they are spending money either they raise taxes or print more money. Either way we lose so i think what ever PM's i have i will hold on too. Hate to butt in but had to say it any way.


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