forum.bulliondirect.com

As always and yet again, I will say that I've always stopped by and read your thread Sol.

I think most of us do. It is a big help.

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There was little movement in silver today. We have been running sideways in a narrow trading range since last week. The dollar seems to be in the same mode. We are at the hands of earnings reports until Wednesday at which point we will have both earnings and economic data to look forward to. The market is still in a bullish mood, but some profit taking and a bearish trend may not be long off. I have backed everything up with defensive moves as volumes have fallen off. Today's volume was mostly due to Holidays around the world to include "Columbus day".

We have had a pretty good run the last twenty years.



SI.

Thanks, as long as a few read it... I will keep posting...

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It was another yawner in the markets today. Gold took the day with a grand total of +.60% and silver was down .17%. The dollar whipsawed down below yesterdays close. The fall in copper prices did not help silver today. Equities were also lower by a small percent. Intel just came out with good earnings so that would be a plus for tomorrow. Oil has just been on a rip approaching 75.00 a barrel once again. Russian and China have come to an agreement for a large oil and gas project, now that Russia is the world's largest producer. They also signed a trade agreement. Russia's Minister Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao had a good day. Something to keep and eye on. Tomorrow will be a bit more lively. We will have earning from Abbott Labs, JP Morgan Chase before the open along with economic data before and during the session.



October, 14th

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Sep
8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Sep
8:30 AM Retail Sales Sep
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Sep
10:00 AM Business Inventories Aug
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Sep

T.

Silver closed up just above yesterday's close. Gold moved down by about the same amount. Silver gained just a little off the equities action which had a DOW closing above the 10,000 level. The dollar gapped down and fell below the next support area, without any confirmation of breaking it. Money was looking at earnings today and not gold, silver. Silver is still trapped within that narrow trading range. Crude oil moved above the 75.00 level on the dollar weakness. That to me is a sign of inflation. We will have to see if it can confirm it's move up by break out above 75.80 or my 138.2% fib resistance. The refiners have been shutting down facilities because of the spike, others are trying to hedge the price from the falling dollar. The oil supply/demand is heavily manipulated in this market, and things can turn on any Thursday. It does directly affect prices of almost everything. Gold is getting some pressure from the next resistance point of 1074.9.



Tomorrow is another day of earnings and economic data. Initial and Continuing claims are mixed. Manufacturing is expected to be lower. Crude, who knows. We have some earnings heavy hitters in the morning, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Southwest Air. Then after the close we have Google. It should prove to be an interesting day of cheap money and big returns....Ha! The Euro has been on rip and is now coming up on some resistance.



October, 15th

8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/10
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/03
8:30 AM Core CPI Sep
8:30 AM CPI Sep
8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Oct
1:00 PM Crude Inventories 10/09

SI

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Silver fell almost 4% today. The day started out bad as the British pound smacked the Euro. The Euro pulled back and the dollar trended up for most of the day. Earnings were a bit mixed between the financial and Tech sectors. The reason I look at the Euro so much is that it is the most weighted in the Dollar index's basket of currencies. The Euro hit an all time high of 1.60 in 2008. It was interesting to see Crude oil ignore all the action and move higher. It is possible that a trader switch is taking place. We will know more tomorrow and the following week.

I also think that the banks are finally showing their weakness and the game they have played since march. I may be redundant here, but the banks themselves are not making money, it is only the investment side, which is our money, that is doing well. They have used that money to hedge this market. It is time to pull in those loans that were given to them, they have had enough time. This is ridiculous that a FDIC insured bank can make these types of leveraged positions with tax payers money. The time has come, let them stand or fall on their own. The catch 22 is that if they fall, the FDIC is now required to back them. Let them start making money on making credit more available, which is what banks do. It is time for Regulation Reform to come back into the picture. If they want to be an investment house, take the FDIC away. If they want to be a bank, let the FDIC insure them.

You can see the dollar trending up today. We have more earnings in the morning, Bank of America, General Electric, Halliburton and Mattel. All before the open. The only reason I put this in, is that this can affect the economic recovery which affects the dollar and in turn PMs. They are part of what forms economic data. The Net Long-Term TIC flows are gross purchases by foreigners from US residents minus gross sales by foreigners to US residents.

Last time I looked the Euro was back trying to break above the 1.4948 resistance level. Which would be a positive for PMs if indeed it breaks above. I do not think real pressure will come till it hits the 1.50-1.60 levels. I think the Euro central bank will move in, if not before then.



October, 16th

9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Aug
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Sep
9:15 AM Industrial Production Sep
9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel Oct

SI

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Dec. Silver stopped it's fall at the 17.30 resistance level and turned up to close above yesterday close @ 17.47. It seems that some risk appetite started to wane toward the end of the week. The DOW closed below 10,000 off it's high of 10,062. Dec. Crude oil closed at 79.10 a high for the year. We are still in a very touchy area. Both Commercial shorts and Speculators net longs are at all time highs, anything could break the rubber band. As I mentioned in a prior post. The large Commercials in May switched from short the dollar to a long position, the shorts are now in the hands to speculators. Just something to keep an eye on.



Gold took the week on a percentage basis. This is reflected in the GSR as well. Next week will be just as busy. Continuing with earnings season and economic data. However Monday will data free. Earnings from Apple, Texas Instruments, JB Hunt Trans and many others will let us know how the economy is progressing. Low inventories and employee cuts are built in.




Everyone have a great weekend!!!
SI

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Silver has dropped below our trading range low of 17.58. However, it is still above the secondary channel of 17.32. Today countering the move made on Monday. It stated in the overnight, but the morning economic data was not good as building permits dropped along with wholesale prices. The remaining price move was from the currency market as the Euro weakened. There was a lot of news out of the Euro zone about currency levels and economic problems. Too much to cover here. Best to leave it; they are not very happy with the flood of US dollars on the world market. Plus we have discussed the euro and USD levels in a prior post. The Australian dollar hit a 14-month high against the USD. Something will happen in this area soon, we still have a little room to the dollars low of 2008 and I look at the bottom of a normal range dollar at 80.

Earnings have been good, and yet equities weakened. I am not impressed with some of these reports. To me it is just de-leveraging everything from employees, inventories and in some cases parts of the business. They and we are in survival mode. We have lost our way, both as a country and as an economic leader, as the Corporate state becomes more visible in our government. The huge consumer power is now moving to a communist country. We have allowed fraud and deceit to become legal, with a few poster boys thrown to the wolves. While companies scream for manufacturing in China to meet their demand, as ours slowly slips into the dumpster. Can we turn that around, I have no idea but it looks like we may not have enough time. We have lost our soul, not only in music but in our system. As I lean back with a drop of Harveys and put on the Satchmo and "It's a beautiful day," with Otis Redding on deck. Tomorrow we will have little economic data to toss around. Crude could throw us a curve. However, I do not think it will be a surprise, gasoline inventories down and crude inventories up. If silver cannot get back above 17.58, a drop to 17.32 or lower would be expected.



October, 21st

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/16
2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book

Just another day in paradise.
T.

After I crashed on my bike, I went on SSI to go to school and get re-trained. We did not have "insurance." Instead, every time we were in need of health care, and that was often then due to pain and depression, we would go to on state adult health insurance for a short period of time. The state would do that because our income would be affected by the coming medical bills and push us into the catagory that was covered. What I am saying is that the poor who need insurance already get it when they need it! We don't need to pay billoins of dollars to pay for it. It's all a scam. Working people who make a decent wage are already insured, and the ones that are not can get it when they need it! All this bull sh*t about it being for the little guy is only partially correct. We will be taxed to death until we are all poor. Now, raising interest rates may help stem the inflation rate somewhat, but when the bonds held by other nations and our favorite banks that are too large to fail come due, we are still going to have to pay the fiddler. That is unless we can monitize the debt with more funny money. Then no matter what, the inflation will eat us alive. I am willing to listen to arguements or approvals on this, I respect you guys, so fire away!

Just my two cents...Take it as you like.

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Silver recouped some of it's earlier loses today. It moved up from the opening and continued until Dick Bove came out and put a damper on the financial sector. His outlook is that earnings are due more to mortgage servicing fees than improved business practices and put a sell recommendation on Wells Fargo. It is amazing what one man's opinion can do with a few words posted late in the afternoon and how the magic machines handle it. The financial sector began to lose it's shine of the day. This took equities down. As we know from recent activity, as the market goes so goes gold and silver. On the currency front the Euro ran above 1.50. Even after an afternoon dip it still closed above the 1.50 pushing the dollar down for most of that day. One thing is certain, many countries, and most visibly Europe are very unhappy with the situation. The G20 meeting in Scotland (Nov. 6-7th I think) should prove to be very heated and interesting. Something is going to give, you can count on it.



You can easily see how things are connected. We have not even touched on oil reaching 82.00/barrel on the Dec contracts. This will put tremendous stain on consumers if it were to stay this high or higher. I think producers will curb this pretty quickly. We are not at peak oil, and the demand is not there. This is all smoke and fast money. As everyone seems to be running from the dollar by whatever means necessary. Tomorrow may not help the situation as economic data could push the Euro higher and the dollar lower. The leading indicators will probably just remind us of past data. Earnings continues tomorrow. Since the currency markets are a such levels, it has my primary focus at the moment.




October, 22nd

8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/17
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/10
10:00 AM Leading Indicators Sep
10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Aug

SI

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Silver's price was below yesterday's close for a loss. The metal did give a late day run at the mark, but sellers came in and took it down. Oil also seemed to lose a bit of it's momentum. The dollar continued to slide as the game of chicken continues with China. The Fed is definitely trying to put pressure on China to float their currency. However, the western markets are not finding any joy in the game. The run for cover into commodities and currencies from the dollar will continue until someone gives way . If the Chinese start to see inflation the move may have been worth it. However, if the dollar collapses we will be at the end game. At that point we will begin our inflation run. Some may say, "collapses" what has it been doing? You will know for sure when and if it does. To this point it has been a slow chronic slide towards the edge.

The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund holdings showed some weakness in holdings today. The buying of jewelry is failing off in India after India's festival. I am not sure when the wedding season begins but if not already it will be soon. Nothing major has changed, the financial sector still gives guidance to the whole Market, gold and silver. The only economic data we have tomorrow is at 10:00et. Existing Home Sales for Sep. it should be positive.



Here is the China story if you wish to read it. China’s Economy Expands 8.9 Percent

SI

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Silver took another hit today of -2.5%. Breaking down below the trading range we had been in for some time. Everything was pointing for this to occur as the Euro reached all time highs and the dollar was approaching the lows of Sept. 2007. Being long the dollar and short gold has been the short term play. The volatility will increase as we approach the end of the month and earnings season. This may open up some excellent buying opportunity in metals. As a 6% correction is a good thing and a good time for consolidation or a turn. There is a lot going on in Congress and Forex markets. Still keeping a close eye on support/resistance areas in the Dec. Dollar contracts. Confidence was not high today and the consumer holds the keys to retail.

A stronger dollar reflects the condition of the country. It needs both economic growth and some fiscal restraint. Congress holds the key to both. The 2 year note auction of 44 billion dollars was the largest on record, demand was three times the number offered. The largest amount on record 26% was had by financial institutions, according to Reuters. The focus for the rest of the month will be the Fed key rate setting on Nov. 4th and Bernanke's speech on the 16th. I look to keep the dollar long short gold play until the GDP report comes out. Durable goods may start the swing tomorrow. This carry trade in the dollar makes it a bit crazy to get direction. With earning slowing and out of the picture by the end of the month, fundamentals will be back in focus.



Oct 28

8:30 AM Durable Orders Sep
8:30 AM Durable Orders ex Transportation Sep
10:00 AM New Home Sales Sep
10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/23

SI

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The tumble continued in the silver market today with a 2.3% loss. I drew the red circle to point out the dead cat bounce that occurs after these waterfall moves. It drives me crazy to see the dollar rise on poor economic data. However, that is what happened today with Consumer confidence and new home sales. This huge US dollar carry trade is very hard to get ones head around. When it unwinds, this will be a drop in the bucket until the Fed steps in to raise rates. The government is still involved in handing out bailouts per GMAC news today. So not to worry, another 2 to 5 billion dollar hand out may be on the way. My view is that the dollar may still have room to move up but I would not expect it to break resistance at 76.91. Gold is right at it's 50% Fib. support @ 1027. The GDP as well as earnings from the big oil companies will give us direction. I went flat on my long the dollar short gold plays this afternoon, except one. If the S&P closes below 1038 tomorrow, look for some further correction in PMs. We have a excellent opportunity to buy, a 6-10% drop is fine in my book. The Dec Silver contracts have fallen 10.06% since 10/24, take it for what it's worth.



Oct 29

8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv.
8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q3
8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/24
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/17

SI

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Silver made up some of it's loses in past days with a gain of 2.65%. The GDP expanded this morning and since that is good news, the dollar began to weaken from it's 4 day run up. Money came out of the dollar and boosted commodities and equities. Silver held right at resistance which has a little strength from prior consolidation. Copper and oil also rose on the good news. Although, most of the gains in the GDP seem to come from stimulus packages like the cash for clunkers, we will take the gain. The jobless claims also showed (to some) a less worse scenario. It looks like traders are returning to the carry trade. Gold bounced off the 50% Fib level, the 1027 level remains as support. The long term chart show the channel that silver has moved YTD. It looks to me like we may have a head and shoulder forming, it will be interesting to see if the left shoulder develops. I am still cautious technically. However, there is nothing magic about the market, dollar down, gold/silver up and visa versa. The daily question lies in the fundamental economic reports. I look for a small bounce in the dollar and then a continuation of it's move downward. We will be taking off tomorrow at noon for a long weekend. Everyone have a great weekend.




October, 30th

8:30 AM Personal Income Sep
8:30 AM Personal Spending Sep
8:30 AM PCE Prices Sep
8:30 AM Core PCE Prices Sep
9:45 AM Chicago PMI Oct
9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev Oct
10:00 AM Employment Cost Index Q3

SI

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Silver edged up 1% but not until some wild gyration took place in both economic data and dollar movements. The positive move in Manufacturing, and housing numbers pushed the dollar lower after the release. I see a lot of talk about the dollar weakening, and little about it's rebound off the Euro later in the day. Citi kept equities capped as it went into bankruptcy. It was a good day to just watch. Volatility is high, in fact we have had a double top with the VIX one on the 30th and one today. Fear seems to be a bit high, my base for the VIX at present is 30. Buying as the VIX tops is key. Above that and silver will lose ground. We saw what happen on Friday when the VIX jumped up 24%. The Bank of England, European central bank, Australia central bank and the Federal Reserve all have key rate settings this week. The importance will be in what is said, after the rates are set. The Australian central bank is the only one of the bunch that is expected to raise rates. Factory orders may be positive in the morning, again pushing the dollar down. The dollar sits at support of 76.30 and could very well breakdown below that support and head for 76.08, pushing silver up in the morning. It would have to form a new low below 76.00 to break the short term uptrend. Something to keep and eye on.



November, 3rd

10:00 AM Factory Orders Sep
2:00 PM Auto Sales Oct
2:00 PM Truck Sales Oct

SI