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 Post subject: Re: Money Multiplier
PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 1:20 pm 
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Yes, on the fractional reserve issue...if the base was expanded through loans/credit...you could go up to about 10 trillion per 1 trillion...but the 1 trillion would still be a reserve and not be in circulation, so approx 9 trillion in circulation...but that is theory, the loans and credit have to be made to get to that mark. So while it is possible... in our current environment loans are not being made. Most of the bailout money has been used to replace losses and the banks are sitting tight in order to make sure they keep their reserve covered.

And yes, most of the money is digital and only a book keeping entry. About 4% of our "money" is in paper/coin. So going off of the 9 trillion mark in "circulation" 4% is 360 billion.

The 4% number shows how fragile a fractional reserve system is during a curreny crisis. It is relatively easy to crash the systme in a matter of hours during a panic driven bank run where depositors are scrambling for cash. More physical dollars can be printed and delivered to banks for physical cash needs, but in an extended panic that doesn't really matter either, because the banks 10% reserve can be wiped out even if they had the physical cash on hand or could get it. They would be audited and when found lacking of proper reserves, closed.

I read that Citibank is sitting on approx. 220 billion in liquid cash reserves right now in anticipation of losses upcoming. I don't know what percent of their assets that represents, but I would bet that it's quite a bit more than usual due to current economic conditions.

As far as the governmet goes, who knows how much longer they can keep it up. We are a debtor nation, so I would say they can keep it up as long as our creditors give them the ability to keep it up. We are forecasted to run a 13% debt to GDP ratio for the upcoming year. I would say that should pretty much do it and the gig will be up soon. The gov't will be REQUIRED to reign in spending in very painful ways...which will probably mean the end of our world dominance as a super power (ie. World Empire). We spend a little less than a trillion on war/defense. My question is when the time comes to reign in spending, what is that going to look like to the average Citizen? If you are able bodied and can keep a job you will probably do ok. If you are retired or disabled, I am guessing you are in for a world of hurt.

I think our class structure will continue transforming to look like many third world countries. Very thin layer of ultra rich that own most everything, thin layer of middle class, and finally a huge base of impoverished people. Ultimately, we will probably be taken back to a feudal type of state. I know this sounds crazy, but its been written about quite a bit since the 70's.


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 Post subject: Re: Money Multiplier
PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:02 pm 
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Matt,

We are having a credit crisis, not a currency crisis. Two of the worst that we ever had occured in 1873 and 1932-- under a gold standard, btw.


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 Post subject: Re: Money Multiplier
PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:32 pm 
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Quote:
..worst that we ever had occurred in 1873


Good stuff...thanks..

Quote:
Panic of 1873

"The American Civil War was followed by a boom in railroad construction. Thirty-five thousand miles (56,000 km) of new track was laid across the country between 1866 and 1873. Much of the craze in railroad investment was driven by government land grants and subsides to the railroads. At that time, the railroad industry was the nation's largest employer outside of agriculture, and it involved large amounts of money and risk. A large infusion of cash from speculators caused abnormal growth in the industry as well as overbuilding of docks, factories and ancillary facilities. At the same time, too much capital was involved in projects offering no immediate or early returns.[1]

And even as the Union Pacific and Central Pacific railroads were being joined together in May 1869 at Promontory Summit, Utah, hence connecting the east coast to the west coast, the first tremors of over speculation were manifesting themselves in an incident that became known as The Black Friday panic. It was caused by the attempt of Jay Gould and Jim Fisk to corner the gold market in 1869. They were prevented from doing so by the decision of the administration of President Ulysses S. Grant to release government gold for sale. The collapse of gold premiums culminated in a day of panic when thousands of overleveraged speculators were ruined - Friday, September 24, 1869, popularly called Black Friday. There was great indignation against the perpetrators

The Coinage Act of 1873 changed the United States policy with respect to silver. Before the Act, the United States had backed its currency with both gold and silver, and it minted both types of coins. The Act moved the United States to a 'de facto' gold standard, which meant it would no longer buy silver at a statutory price or convert silver from the public into silver coins (though it would still mint silver dollars in the form of Trade Dollars)

The Act had the immediate effect of depressing silver prices. This hurt Western mining interests, who labeled the Act "The Crime of '73." Its effect was offset somewhat by the introduction of a silver trade dollar for use in the Orient, and by the discovery of new silver deposits at Virginia City, Nevada, resulting in new investment in mining activity.[2] But the coinage law also reduced the domestic money supply, which hurt farmers and anyone else who carried heavy debt loads. The resulting outcry raised serious questions about how long the new policy would last.[3] This perception of instability in United States monetary policy caused investors to shy away from long-term obligations, particularly long-term bonds. The problem was compounded by the railroad boom, which was in its later stages at the time.

In September 1873, the American economy entered a crisis. This followed a period of post Civil War economic overexpansion that arose from the Northern railroad boom. It came at the end of a series of economic setbacks: the Black Friday panic of 1869, the Chicago fire of 1871, the outbreak of equine influenza in 1872, and demonetization of silver in 1873...."


Just a coincidence that Warren Buffet bought a RR? I think not... :)


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 Post subject: Re: Money Multiplier
PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:26 am 
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True, we are in a credit crisis and I mixed the two together. I guess I am thinking out loud of what I believe will happen over the next few years.


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 Post subject: Re: Money Multiplier
PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:13 pm 
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Actually, I think it was a fantastic move for Warren Buffet to buy a railroad.
Labor costs for railroads have gone way down, and the unions power will erode even more over time.
meanwhile, with container shipping imports dropped right on train flat cars with no labor involved, and the economical costs for train transport (very little fuel/labor per ton) not to mention how boxcars and other train systems can be used for long term tax shelters. you are going to see a great deal of what went to truck hauling now go back to trains, and the profits will soar.
This is what Buffet is betting on.
The key to his success has been seeing under utilized systems of transport, investment, tax shelters or production, and getting in on the ground floor before the rest of the market sees what is happening.
and you can bet your behind that since Buffet bought the train system, that a ton of other investers will now be looking, and investing too.


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 Post subject: Re: Money Multiplier
PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 8:46 pm 
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The money creation does not mean anything as it IS NOT circulating. New loans to business and consumers ARE NOT being made. The only borrower (at 0% interest rates) is the government. A very sweet deal if you can get it but the average joe on the street is suffering. Government is winning by overthrowing business enterprises, the medical establishment and banking interests while at the same time hurting the population by inflating away the currency and paying nothing for borrowing peoples savings.

Consumers are paying off debt in large quantities. Business enterprises of all sizes are downsizing, firing and planning for the worst which only compounds the decline of the money multiplier. As the private sector contracts and the government sector expands this trend will continue until we the people say ENOUGH. Got gold and silver? Sincerely, John Leckrone


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 Post subject: Re: Money Multiplier
PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 9:31 pm 
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925dealer wrote:
The money creation does not mean anything as it IS NOT circulating. New loans to business and consumers ARE NOT being made. The only borrower (at 0% interest rates) is the government. A very sweet deal if you can get it but the average joe on the street is suffering. Government is winning by overthrowing business enterprises, the medical establishment and banking interests while at the same time hurting the population by inflating away the currency and paying nothing for borrowing peoples savings.

Consumers are paying off debt in large quantities. Business enterprises of all sizes are downsizing, firing and planning for the worst which only compounds the decline of the money multiplier. As the private sector contracts and the government sector expands this trend will continue until we the people say ENOUGH. Got gold and silver? Sincerely, John Leckrone


Agreed, Dealer. I think it is time to throw the bums out. We will never recover until we are rid of the whole lot of criminals we have elected to Washington. They are all working so hard to subject us that we have been sold down the river and most don't even know it.


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 Post subject: Re: Money Multiplier
PostPosted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 1:03 pm 
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925dealer wrote:
The money creation does not mean anything as it IS NOT circulating. New loans to business and consumers ARE NOT being made. The only borrower (at 0% interest rates) is the government. A very sweet deal if you can get it but the average joe on the street is suffering....

Got gold and silver? Sincerely, John Leckrone


The money is circulating, just not in areas where it will be measured by the CPI. Money is circulating in commodities, bonds, currencies, and stocks. That is why and how we have a stock market rally in the midst of a mainstreet depression.

The banks are borrowing from the Fed at one percent or less, and buying Treasuries at three percent. They make a ton of money at zero percent risk, and pay themselves billions of dollars in bonuses using taxpayer money for being so damn smart. The average Joe and Mary on the street are reaping the consequences of their inactivity and a lifetime of inattention.

Like you said, "A very sweet deal if you can get it."


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